Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Critical update: S&P500 crossing 1262 might turn markets bullish
S&P 500 is showing an interesting chart! It has pulled-up from 62% fib and retraced to a channel top resistance. As I write this post, it's showing a reversal again and comfortably above SMA 50 (1227)! If it breaks past the channel top and closes above 1262, and subsequently a double top at 1295, we might see a Bull run upto 1395!This will definitely put Indian market also to a Bull phase.
Nifty might give one more opportunity to short at a higher level. A channel resistance near 4650-4660 might be a level. This could be the last short of this swing before Bulls come back at least for sometime.
It's always difficult to get the right level to enter. However, one should decide which side to play big, then it's possible to 'sell on rise' / 'buy on dip'. One can not have same R-multiples for each trade. While it's possible to have higher R-multiples at the begining of the swing, but as it comes nearer to end it's likely to result in trades of 1:1 R-multiples. But this being the trend side, often we might be surprised with higher expectancy ratio than we calculated.
To my fellow friends and traders, I would request to provide me with a good trader log or refer to something available online.
Indian equity market is really looking very dim. Most of the nifty 50 large caps are going to give away 100% of its gains since begining of 2009. I still maintain that the bear market that started from the top of 6345, should not breach 4460 (as it's the VPO). If that's the case, most of these stocks will bounce back from 62% or 78%, and the cash market should become active.