Nifty P&F (Wk 2612-30122011) - Bears had a year, Now one for Bulls?

Merry x-mas to all of you and P&F enthusiasts!

Recap:

Today I want you all to refer this Post on 1st week of March-2011 this talked about 4300 - 4500 as target! Now that was 9 months old reading, even last week's chart read 5800 >> 5000; it did. My belief on P&F has grown stronger day by day.

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly halted, daily UP. If 4660-4680 is held, possibly heading for 4840-4860.

Market is making possibly a bottom. The worst bottom, if not already made at 4540, should be 4300-4340. I am expecting a consolidation, if not a complete reversal from this point. Couple of points that I am considering:

1. the channel bottom is being bought by the Bulls again and again.
2. many of the nifty 50 stocks have given away a year's complete gain
3. (though I don't understand much) Elliott wave suggesting a double zig-zag
4. gold and rupees have done enough

Critical update: S&P500 crossing 1262 might turn markets bullish

S&P 500 is showing an interesting chart! It has pulled-up from 62% fib and retraced to a channel top resistance. As I write this post, it's showing a reversal again and comfortably above SMA 50 (1227)! If it breaks past the channel top and closes above 1262, and subsequently a double top at 1295, we might see a Bull run upto 1395!This will definitely put Indian market also to a Bull phase.

Nifty might give one more opportunity to short at a higher level. A channel resistance near 4650-4660 might be a level. This could be the last short of this swing before Bulls come back at least for sometime.

It's always difficult to get the right level to enter. However, one should decide which side to play big, then it's possible to 'sell on rise' / 'buy on dip'. One can not have same R-multiples for each trade. While it's possible to have higher R-multiples at the begining of the swing, but as it comes nearer to end it's likely to result in trades of 1:1 R-multiples. But this being the trend side, often we might be surprised with higher expectancy ratio than we calculated.

To my fellow friends and traders, I would request to provide me with a good trader log or refer to something available online.

Indian equity market is really looking very dim. Most of the nifty 50 large caps are going to give away 100% of its gains since begining of 2009. I still maintain that the bear market that started from the top of 6345, should not breach 4460 (as it's the VPO). If that's the case, most of these stocks will bounce back from 62% or 78%, and the cash market should become active.

Nifty P&F (Wk 1911 - 2312) - Bears target channel bottom 4580!

Recap:

Once again was wrong in expecting market to move another 100 points 4900. But having an alternate view helped exiting longs on break of BlSL.

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly & Daily both down. A weak chance of double bottom. Most probablistic target for bears 4580 >> 4500.

Nifty P&F (Wk 1211 - 1612) - Bears rest for higher levels

Appology for not being able to update the blog for last one month. It's just lack of time (management) in the weekend. However, did not miss a single move of the market.

Recap:

Well, price went below 4700 by 2 boxes and came back for a pause.

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly DOWN. Daily UPped today. A rangebound market till we resolve the triangle formed by the BlSL and the BrRL. Bias is on down side. Level to short 4910-4960. Breaking of the BlSL on weekly chart could take it to 4500.