Nifty P&F (Wk 2412-2812) - Turned down, support 5800, next 5715!

Recap:

Above 5670, it went up 250+ points.

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Daily Down, Weekly not yet down. Channel support in daily chart at 5800. However, if broken, VPO is targetting 5715!

Breaking further (5685) will threat the uptrend.

Happy Christmas!!!

Nifty P&F (Wk 2611-3011) - if Daily pullback does not breach 5670, going down to 5450!

Recap:

Though price is still hovering around 5600, but it has broken the level.

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly under BrRL (5700) & Daily over BlSL (5580).
But a double-bottom breakdown below 5620 in weekly chart has set some momentum downwards (unless it's a fake-out). Daily pull-back should not cross 5670 level. Weekly support of BlSL with rangebound movement should come @5450 else @5350.

However, so far there is no threat towards the uptrend that has been set in since 4820 in mid-May.

Nifty P&F (Wk 1201-1605) - Still support 5600, if broken 5450, target 6060.

Recap:

Support came a box lower than 5600.

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

I hold my previous view of 5600 support & 6060 target even now. However, the chart has shown very mild weakness for some correction, which might get arrested at 5450 level.

Wish you all a Very Happy Diwali !!!

Nifty P&F (Wk 1001-1005) - support 5600, target 6060!

Coming back after a long hiatus. Don't want to give the excuse that could not manage time. Nevertheless, coming back on an auspicious day of Bapu's birthday. While most of you would have read - his autobiography "My Experiment with truth", a must read for all.

All his teachings are quite relevant in almost every field of life, the one may be very true for all the traders - that we can't change the world outside us but can change the one inside us.

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly UP, Daily UP but near resistance. Weekly channel resistance (BlRL) is near 6060. Daily BlSL support near 5600.

Amidst, rounds of reforms already large blue-chips had their initial run, some of the mid-caps are joining the race, may be worth a try.

Nifty P&F (Wk 0608-1008) - Bulls only above 5300!

Recap:

Was grossly wrong in gauging the market. It went 4 pts higher than expected!

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly on resistance, Daily down. Even after this week's upmove, there is significant down side pressure (I'm writing this when US markets are ~2% up). But till it does not clear the BrRL in weekly chart above 5300, I will be very cautious.

Nifty P&F (Wk 3006-0407) - a pullback to 5180 & support at 5050

Recap:

Past 5110, weakness has crept in.

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly down, daily range bound. Near-term bias is up. Should pull-back to the point of 5180. DOWN side if resumes immediately support near 5050 level.

Nifty P&F (Wk 2506-2906) - a correction till 5110

Recap:

Charts are bullish, though not super-bullish yet!

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly paused. Daily down. Clearly the upmove is more or less arrested. Correction can further go down till 5110 level.

Note: These days I've become a little inefficient in managing time & hence discontinuity in posting.Will try to be regular, if this has slightly mattered to some reader apology for that.

Nifty P&F (Wk 2506-2906) - close above 5200 charts are super bullish

Recap:

An ascending range is on, still to reach 5240 range.

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly & Daily up. Closing chart is quite bullish with an ascending triangle break-out. Closing above 5200 might turn things super-bullish.

Nifty P&F (Wk 1806-2206) - a battle @ 5300 likely to play out in a range

Recap:

5110 first and then 5140 - resistances were lined up perfectly as per the charts. Today's analysis says 5300 still a point of huge resistance.

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly & Daily UP. 5140 acted as resistance twice in the week. However, the last top is suggesting a double top break-out.

A VPO is targeting a price-objective of 5245. On weekly chart BrRL suggesting a resistance at 5260, which also happens to be 62% fib for the price range of 5620-4820! The daily chart BlRL is however indicating, this won't happen smooth, but probably in an ascending range.

Lastly, everything is still settled for a good combat at a few notch below 5300 level.

Nifty P&F (Wk 1106-1506) - resistance 5140, bears in contention till 5300

Recap:

A bullishness was expected at a close above 4800, it came back but was much furious than expected.

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:
Weekly UP, Daily Up. Weekly resistance below 5140, Daily 5110 (BrRL) & 5170 (BlRL). So effectively 5140 (50% fib from the top of 5450) level to offer resistance.

Now the big question, whether a temporary reversal has happened! P&F chart is pretty clear in this sense -

• w.r.t. the top of 6340 Nov'10, the BrRL has been broken in Feb'12. 
• w.r.t. of 5620 Feb'12, the BrRL lies at 5300 level.

However, long-term BlSL from the low of 4540 has been broken, therefore we are in bearish mode till the long-term BrRL from the top of 5620.

Nifty P&F (Wk 0406-0806) - daily closing above 4800 will imply price moving in downward channel

Recap:

The range broke 4955. Knew there was a resistance, but came 3 points earlier at 5015 only!

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly & Daily DOWN. However both got supported exactly on BlSL @ 4835. Being above 78% fib, a weekly chart shows mild possibility of ascending bottom, and thereby feebly bullish.
The trend is largely down. However price likely to close above 4800 and grind within a downward channel.

Nifty P&F (Wk 2805-0106) - the range likely to break 4955 to reach 5075

Recap:

A double top brought the resistance one box below at 4955!

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly UP & Daily range-bound.
An interesting note in the closing chart. It picked-up BlSL support from lows of 4520 of Dec'11.
Breaking past 4955, there is a high chance of taking it to 5075 level. However, a close below 4850 will be resumption of down move.

Nifty P&F (Wk 2105-2505) - pullback resistance 4970, if broken 5070!

Recap:

 4900 broken, but till coming back to that price often.

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly down. Daily reversed. BlSL broken. 4.23 times fib target reached. Immediate pullback resistance near 4940-4970 level, which is BlSL channel & 38% fib retracement. If broken through, next resistance 5060-75 level which is double bottom support broken earlier & 62% fib retracement.

Nifty P&F (Wk 1405-1805) - Still support around 4900 level

Recap:

Though 4925 broken it's holding above 4900!

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly & Daily down. A long-pole in daily chart & a weekly channel support at 4900 level suggest an immediate support near-by.

Nifty P&F (Wk 0705-1105) - support 4925, month long distribution target 4300-4380!

Recap:

5060 broken. There was no trap.

Weekly Analysis:

(updated till last week)

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly & Daily down. Immediate channel support should not breach 4925. The consolidation in weekly chart has two deep targets VPO @ 4300 (=5620-3*11*40) & HPO @ 4380 (=5340-3*8*40).

Nifty P&F (Wk 3004-0405) - till 5060 beware of 'bear trap'

Recap:

No more an "ascending top", now it's only bullish catapult.

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly DOWN. Daily DOWN. BlSL has been broken in weekly chart also. Support should not breach 5060 for bullishness to be intact. This is definitely a consolidation, it's a matter to be tested which way finally it gives in. As it's grinding too much in this range, it's likely to get into a trap.

Nifty P&F (Wk 2304-2704) - more grinding ahead before bullishness returns

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly UP (as of last week). Daily DOWN. Daily has broken the BlSL. The weekly chart is showing signs of Bullish Catapult. Which means a 7-column affair before the bullishness returns but the pattern is valid only till it holds 5180, which is very near!

Let's see which way it breaks.

Nifty P&F (Wk 1604-2004) - strong support in 5140-5180, upside resistance 5380-5420

Recap:

For the whole week struggled to close below 5240 and the last day of week closed meekly below it.

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly DOWN. Daily DOWN. Overall trend has turned down, but there is a BlSL at current point on both daily & weekly chart; Bulls will take this chance. Only a close below 5180 in daily chart & 5140 in weekly chart will set the bearish trend in full-force. On upside, there is a band of resistance between 5380-5420.

Nifty P&F (Wk 0904-1304) - sideways till supports 5300, close below 5240 & above 5390 sets trend

Market is not about timing is my belief like most of the P&F technicians. It's all about following the price. For a given duration (whatever it is - hour, day, week & month) only three price points are important - high, low & close. Close is the only price that determines the trend, high & low are the boundaries of the range when price is not trending. My experience says P&F works even today and there is no other method superior to it when it comes to trend.

Recap:

Price faced resistance in the range of 5360-5375.

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly UP. Daily DOWN. Daily chart showing support at 5300 level, channel support at 5240 level. If this does not break the BlSL, the VPO target is 5800. Multiple BrRLs exist before bulls are free-horn. The first one is daily close above 5390.

Nifty P&F (Wk 0204-0604) - resistance 5350, target 5450; downside resumes below 5230

Recap:

Broke down 5210 and went upto 5150 level.

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly down. Daily up. Upside resistance 5350, break next target 5450. Downside resumes halfway of 'X' column at 5230.

Nifty P&F (Wk 2603-3003) - likely to break down below 5210, upside possibility above 5330

Recap:

The range is still intact.

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Today I have put two types of P&F chart. The first one is the conventional 3-pt reversal (box=20) & the second one is the 1-pt reversal wyckoff chart (box=60).

See the beauty of Wyckoff chart, it very clearly tells, that the chance of breaking down has very high probability. However, the same is not true in case of first chart where the range is still on. Important level for break down is 5210. The price still may follow the upside above 5330.

Nifty P&F (Wk 1903-2303) - Price in range, momentum above 5460 & below 5180!

Recap:

Price went down thwarting intra rise of UP polls & budget volatility below 5345!

Weekly Analysis:

 

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly DOWN. Daily UP. Weekly chart showing a range which needs to broken on upside 5460 >> 5540. DOWN side moemntum gains only below 5180!

Nifty P&F (Wk 1202-1603) - Bulls if close above 5375, bears if close below 5345

Recap:

First support came at 5170.

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly paused. Daily UP. A reversal from 38% fib & a channel support. The upside pullback has approached 38% (@5345) of the downside reversal. I am still not confident about the upmove, there are resistances lying @ 5375 & 5405. A close above 5375 will make the case for Bulls strong. Closing below 5345 remains week on daily chart and we should head back to 5180 levels.

Nifty P&F (Midwk 0502-0903) - first support near 5165, next 5090

Election results did not change much the EOD scenario 160+ pts movement against the position either way would have made life difficult for many like me. I always follow the EOD method but early morning movement was too much for me to sit tight.

The current scenario provides a support at 5165, break and next one near 5075-90.

Nifty P&F (Wk 0502-0903) - first a resistance at 5420 then 5200?

Recap:

Support came much below.

Weekly Analysis:

Daily Analysis:

Summary:

Weekly down. Daily up. Clearly rangebound. The BrRL in weekly chart will play a major role in deciding the break of range. Very immediate resistance for the downmove to continue till 5200 level should be 5420!